Klaus's demolition squad to cause PM Nečas's fall soon

Prague, Sept 25 (CTK) - The time of the coalition government of Civic Democrats (ODS) chairman Petr Necas is running out and President Vaclav Klaus's veto of the pension reform bill is just another step of a merciless demolition squad, analyst Lukas Jelinek writes in Pravo daily Tuesday.

The rumour of Necas's unavoidable fall is spreading from well-informed bars in the Lesser Town, near the houses of parliament and the Prague Castle where the president is seated, Jelinek writes.

He says the only thing that still needs to be done is to hunt down the prime minister and make the public strongly call for a change, which is easy in case of the highly unpopular Necas government.

Klaus openly showed dissatisfaction with nearly all of the major steps that Necas's government took this year - the planned VAT increase, church property return, dismissal of police president, recent ban imposed on liquor sales, Jelinek says.

Anything that Klaus did in the recent weeks and months won support among a part of the Civic Democrats, he adds.

The pension reform that was passed by the parliament by a narrow majority but vetoed by Klaus clearly shows Necas's biggest weakness: he is not good at negotiating and he is pushing through his plans, looking neither left nor right. He is not interested in voters, the opposition, trade unions and employers or party colleagues, Jelinek writes.

Some ODS politicians have run out of patience, however, he adds.

Though they do not openly present their dissatisfaction at meetings of the ODS leadership or the ODS lower house deputies' group, Necas has considerably more opponents than six, Jelinek says, referring to the six ODS MPs who voted against a key government tax package increasing VAT in parliament two weeks ago.

Necas's situation is rather similar to that of former prime minister Vladimir Spidla (Social Democrats, CSSD) in 2004: open discord and backstage plotting of rebellious MPs, Jelinek writes.

Spidla's cabinet dealt with unpopular tasks, too: a tax package in reaction to the disastrous floods in 2002, a reform of public finances, a draft agreement with the Vatican, he recalls.

The rebels against Spidla used similar arguments like the MPs opposing Necas: the government is unpopular, it does not fulfill its programme and the prime minister does not sufficiently communicate with representatives of his own party, Jelinek writes.

Necas is said to end in the same way as Spidla soon. Spidla was cornered and he could have either resigned or surprised by a brilliant political move, for example by reshaping his government coalition. He chose the first and the CSSD then composed a new government and President Klaus appointed it, Jelinek notes.

Necas does not have more possibilities than Spidla had then. He is nevertheless trying to imitate his predecessor, former ODS leader and prime minister Mirek Topolanek, who in reaction to a rebellion led by ODS MP Vlastimil Tlusty in 2009 said he made an irresistible offer to Tlusty. Topolanek's government fell soon afterwards, however, Jelinek recalls.

Now there seems to be a tendency to calm down the revolution in the ODS by making personnel changes in state institutions, allegedly the Supreme Audit Office (NKU), the Czech Export Bank and the EGAP export credit insurance corporation, and by a promise of a new wave of privatisations, Jelinek writes.

Both Klaus and the rebelling MPs back new privatisations using the seemingly logical argument that the state does not have enough money for the pension reform and church restitution and that this money should not be gained through tax hikes, but through privatisations and cutting state expenditures, Jelinek says.

All hardline right-wingers should applaud this way of thinking, he writes with irony.

This might be the basis of a new government, including immortal Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek (TOP 09), Deputy PM Karolina (Liberal Democrats, LIDEM) and even Radek John and Vit Barta, leaders of the opposition Public Affairs (VV) which left the coalition six months ago, Jelinek says.

The government would remain more or less unchanged, only having a different prime minister, one that would be confirmed by the autumn congress of the ODS. If Necas still has any strength, he may try to fight for his future at the congress, Jelinek concludes.