LN: Fall of Nečas's gov't close to inevitable

Prague, Oct 1 (CTK) - The fall of Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas's government is difficult to be averted as the rebellious deputies from the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) are really ready to topple it, daily Lidove noviny (LN) writes yesterday.

Necas's Civic Democrats are really facing the risk that six to seven rebellious deputies can topple the Necas government in less than one month, LN writes.

This is why Necas and his team from the party leadership are patiently negotiating with them, it adds.

"The probability that they will not back the government package along with an increase in VAT amounts to tens of percent," a well-informed source from the ODS is quoted as saying.

On the face of it, official conclusions from the series of talks with the dissidents try to create the impression that the views are converging and a compromise will be hammered out, LN writes.

However, there was no real convergence as Necas insists on the increase in VAT with which he has linked the confidence vote in his government, it adds.

The six rebels headed by Petr Tluchor and Marek Snajdr still consider this unacceptable and they keep carrying alternative proposals to Necas, under which expenditures are to be curbed so that taxes need not have to be increased, LN writes.

They are for the privatisation of state-owned companies, cuts in operational costs and the scrapping of the government proposal to hire 1400 new state employees, it adds.

However, this is a far cry from getting the 18 billion crowns the government hopes to gain through the 1-percent increase in two VAT rates to 15 and 21 percent, LN writes.

Besides, the real objectives of the dissatisfied deputies differ from those they officially declare, it adds.

In fact, they demand that their influence in the ODS be strengthened and that the reform effort launched by Health Minister Leos Heger be slowed down, LN writes.

The decisive moment will come at the session of the Chamber of Deputies that starts on October 23 where the confidence vote will take place, it adds.

The first reading of the budget bill will be also vital because without the government package it is impossible to put together the deficit at a mere 100 billion crowns, LN writes.

At the same time, 101 votes in the 200-member Chamber of Deputies will be needed to override President Vaclav Klaus's veto of the pension reform, it adds.

The six ODS deputies resent the pension reform as much as the taxes and they are very uncertain to vote for the legislation, LN writes.

The deputies can be expected to combine the two affairs. Snajdr has repeatedly said if the government did not try to implement the pension reform, it would not have to increase the VAT either, it adds.

Within the reform, people will get a chance of moving 3 percent of the compulsory payment on pension schemes to the private one. The state will need to gain the lacking money from the increased VAT, LN writes.

The vote on the critical legislation will only be held after the October 12-13 regional and Senate elections. If the ODS fails in them, the group headed by Tluchor can be expected to step up its pressure and to blame Necas for it as he dropped the ODS manifesto and was also behind the unpopular tax increase.

It is not clear what would follow if the rebels really toppled the Necas government, LN writes.

If the outcome of the regional elections were very bad for the ODS, a large part of party members would be expected to be against early elections, it adds.

As a result, the party will try to form a new government headed by a different prime minister from the ODS, LN writes.

However, this would be opposed by Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek, strongman of TOP 09, it adds.

"The intra-party coup architects are not interested in the pension reform or budget legislation. They are only interested in getting rid of Necas," Kalousek is quoted as saying.

"If the gentlemen are cherishing the idea that after shooting down Necas we will somehow continue, they are quite wrong," he added.

"In fact, by shooting down Necas, they will shoot down the government priorities in which we believe," Kalousek said.

The ODS rebels do not hide their ambitions that they want to increase their influence in the party. Tluchor and Boris Stastny, another rebel, want to run for the post of party deputy chairmen, LN writes.

No one has openly admitted that he wants to run against Necas, but if Tluchor and his men really toppled the government, Necas, as a fallen prime minister, would only with great difficulties defend the post of party leader, although he does not seem to have any serious rival at the moment, it adds.

($1 = 19.316 crowns)