Reflex: Nečas likely to survive as PM and ODS head

Prague, Nov 1 (CTK) - Petr Necas is likely to survive both votes he faces at his Civic Democratic Party's (ODS) congress and in the Chamber of Deputies where he tied a vote on a finance stabilising package with a confidence vote, but it is a question for how long, Bohumil Pecinka writes in weekly Reflex out yesterday.

Pecinka, however, writes that the government as well as the ODS's future will be solved without Necas unless he makes expected changes within five months maximally.

At the moment, the sole losers are the ODS rebels headed by lawmakers Petr Tluchor and Marek Snajder, who sank the above package aimed to stabilise public finances and demand that changes be made to it, otherwise they will again reject it. This would mean an end of the government.

Many believe that the rebels' real motive is to get rid of Necas.

ODS district assemblies have already indicated that a majority of active members agree with the criticism of the tax legislation, but the rebels have repudiated even their possible supporters with the threats addressed to their own government, Pecinka writes.

Besides, the rebels have taken an airy attitude to the matter that is reminiscent of the behaviour of Czechoslovak democratic ministers in February 1948, Pecinka writes.

The ministers headed by Hubert Ripka wanted to push communists out from the government without having discussed the matter with the leadership of all non-communist parties and the president who appoints the prime minister, Pecinka writes.

Their favourite saying was: "We will face them with fait accompli and then we will see." This attitude resulted in that the communists themselves sent them out from the government, Pecinka writes.

He writes that when many ODS officials and members asked Tluchor and Snajdr whether they have agreed on continuation of government coalition cooperation with the junior government member, the conservative TOP 09, or whether they have made sure that President Vaclav Klaus will really appoint the next prime minister from among the ODS, they replied similarly like the democratic ministers 64 years ago.

The result of the rebellion will be a humiliating defeat of the group in the better case, and their expulsion from the ODS in the worse case, Pecinka writes.

After his victory, Necas should first disengage himself from the baleful influence of Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek, TOP 09 deputy chairman, and stop pretending that the current government is identical with that last spring, because it is not, Pecinka writes.

The government has not only lost a safe majority in the Chamber of Deputies when the majority stream of the original government Public Affairs (VV) quit it, but the ODS and TOP 09 have suffered a huge defeat in the recent regional and Senate elections, Pecinka writes.

To put it brief, the government has lost sufficient legitimacy to pass important legislation, and if it continues pushing through with strength such bills like church restitution, it can repudiate even its last supporters, Pecinka writes.

He writes that in such a situation the prime minister must change the lineup of his team, present a new policy statement and ask the Chamber of Deputies for a new vote of confidence.

Unless Necas takes these steps by the year's end, the government will hardly be capable of overcoming its current situation, Pecinka writes.

He writes that it is to be expected that the more than 600 delegates to the congress will seek greater emancipation from their regional bosses who always try to regulate the voting of "their" representatives from regions.

The congress will probably also see the rise of personalities like senator Jaroslav Kubera, mayor of Teplice, north Bohemia, who was recently re-elected for another six-year Senate term, who can boast well-done work in their towns as well as an election success, Pecinka writes.

The congress will probably also deal with the opinion of some that ODS ministers can no longer be under the diktat of TOP 09 on important economic and social issues, Pecinka writes.

He says the toying of the senior representatives of the ODS and TOP 09 with the idea of early elections as a solution to the current government's situation is destructive.

There is no known example of a government party on the defensive that would want to confirm its depression by sending itself into a still deeper one, Pecinka writes.

He writes that the Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) could provide inspiration. When it held its congress in 2005, the then senior government party was supported by 10 percent of people according to public opinion polls.

Soon afterwards, Jiri Paroubek became its chairman. Lending the party a new dynamism and setting out a new programme, he raised the party's voter preferences up to 32 percent, Pecinka writes.

The ODS should consider applying the Paroubek solution unless Necas exploits his last chance in the months to come, Pecinka writes.