Zeman, Schwarzenberg to bring ČR closer to EU, analysts say

Prague, Jan 13 (CTK) - Advance of Milos Zeman and Karel Schwarzenberg into the second round of presidential elections in the Czech Republic gives the country a chance of having a more active pro-European policy in the future, analysts said in a CTK poll.

The differences between the two candidates' opinions are not very big, although Zeman presents himself more as a leftist politician and Schwarzenberg as a rightist one.

Zeman won 24.2 percent and Schwarzenberg 23.4 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections held this weekend.

As regards the country's economy, it will not make a big difference who from the two winners of the first election round will become the president in the end as the powers of the president to influence the economy are usually indirect.

The influence can be wielded through an appointment of members of the governing board of the Czech National Bank (CNB), for example.

The composition of the CNB's Bank Board would be chosen differently by each of the two presidential candidates, Pavel Mertlik, chief economist of Raiffeisenbank, said.

However, the differences will not be great and should not influence the economic situation significantly, Mertlik said.

David Marek, chief economist of company Patria Finance, is of the same opinion.

Judging from the statements the two candidates have made so far it seems that they prefer the continuation of the tradition of appointing experts, which means there is no risk that the direction of the monetary policy will change significantly, he said.

However, the Czech Republic's attitude towards the European Union could change, which could be an advantage for the Czech economy, UniCredit Bank analyst Pavel Sobisek said.

A shift from the current negativist mode, that the Czech Republic has adopted in the past 10 years, towards a more pragmatic attitude can be beneficial to the country simply by the fact that it will be considered a more acceptable partner for various talks, Sobisek said.

The stances on European integration and the monetary policy held by the two candidates for the second round of elections are very similar, economist Marketa Sichtarova of company Next Finance said.

But the victory of Zeman would lead to a slightly more reserved attitude towards a too loose monetary policy, for example, while Schwarzenberg would probably pick such persons on the governing board who would support tighter banking integration and earlier adoption of the euro, according to Sichtarova.

But candidates' opportunity to influence the composition of the central bank's governing board is not a question of the months to come because the governing board has been freshly appointed, Sichtarova said.

The appointment of central bankers would have its effect not earlier than in the second half of the presidential term, but until then the economic situation in Europe can markedly change, Sichtarova added.

Marek also expects a shift closer to the attitudes of the European Union after the appointment of a new president.

It can be expected that the Czech Republic will probably move from the current rebellious periphery closer to the positions held by neighbouring countries Poland and Slovakia, for example.

The second round of the elections will take place on January 25 and 26.