HN: ODS seems to be paralysed by presidential election

Prague, Feb 5 (CTK) - The Czech senior ruling ODS seems to be paralysed into inability to react to the post-presidential election situation with anything comprehensible and it seems to be waiting for what the outgoing and newly elected presidents invent, Jan Machacek writes in Hospodarske noviny Tuesday.

The first direct presidential election in January was won by Milos Zeman, former Social Democrat (CSSD) prime minister, now honorary chairman of the Party of Citizens' Rights (SPOZ). He will replace Vaclav Klaus whose second and last five-year term expires on March 7.

Machacek writes that the current centre-right coalition government of Petr Necas (Civic Democrats, ODS) may last until the regular elections scheduled for May 2014 even though Zeman is opposed to it and he has indicated he might remove it [which some lawyers say is not possible under the constitution].

Machacek writes that Necas might be replaced in a constitutional coup, which would open the way to a new transitional government.

Or, the government might be voted no confidence and a new transitional one would rule the country until regular or early elections, Machacek writes.

Unbelievably, one of the ODS's main worries in this situation is whether someone close to the rival government TOP 09 party should become head of the Ceske lesy forest state company according to media information.

Meanwhile, media speculate about whether former justice minister Jiri Pospisil or Klaus could replace Necas as ODS head, Machacek writes.

He says Pospisil's election would require the active participation of the ODS's voters and supporters who, however, cannot quickly become party members.

Klaus's election would be easier, but he must say whether he wants to become head of a temporary government, or to leave the post to someone else while he will be consolidating the nationalist right, Machacek writes.

The SPOZ wants to exploit the potential of Zeman and it will be pressing through him for early elections to be held and a temporary government formed with some of the party leading figures participating in it, Machacek writes.

He says this would solve the situation of Zeman who does not have where to place his people. No lucrative posts exist in the presidential office, he adds.

Machacek writes that the tactic of Bohumil Sobotka, chairman of the CSSD that Zeman left in 2007, seems to to be noteworthy.

Sobotka has been telling people via media for several days that he hopes that Zeman will meet him and that he will reserve enough time for him, Machacek writes.

He writes that Sobotka exposes his weakness this way and that his talks with Zeman will eventually be counter-productive.

The CSSD should behave the other way round. It should keep silent making it clear who is important and without whom Zeman will be unable to do anything, Machacek writes.

Nevertheless, a long-time scenario for the left is becoming evident. The nationalist, populist and pragmatic (in the sense of joining forces with anyone) left (comprising the wing of CSSD deputy chairman Michal Hasek, the SPOZ and possibly also communists sometime in the future) will be consolidated, Machacek writes.

On the other hand, a leftist wing, comprising the liberal, politically correct left that will not want to have anything in common with Zeman will arise, Machacek writes.

He writes that the fact that educated people in towns and students still prefer voting for the right is - whether someone may like this or not - rather unusual and it is definitely untenable for ever.

TOP 09 should make use of the potential of its chairman and Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, whom Zeman beat in the presidential election, and combine its lists of candidates with civic associations that are already being formed now, Machacek writes.

To succeed, TOP 09 must open itself clearly to the personalities who supported Schwarzenberg in the presidential election and who contributed to the ethos of his campaign, Machacek writes.

He writes that this will not probably break up the long-term trends, but it can spoil the scenarios that Zeman and Klaus and their power cartel are preparing.