LN: More new parties may enter parliament after election

Prague, Feb 19 (CTK) - An interesting process that may bring to parliament or even the government entirely new parties that would redraw the political map of the Czech Republic after the regular general election scheduled for mid-2014 is starting, Stanislav Balik writes in daily Lidove noviny Tuesday.

He writes that the forthcoming election is viewed out of inertia as a struggle of the existing parties and that it may produce a Social Democrat-Communist majority, according to public opinion polls.

However, a new party did not enter parliament only in two general elections (1996, 2002) in the more than 20 years of post-communist developments in the country, Balik writes.

Even though it may seem that there is little time left, it is not so. TOP 09 and Public Affairs (VV) that were only gathering forces one year before the mid-2010 election, and yet they had together more than a half of ministers after the election, Balik writes.

He writes that the dream of Andrej Babis, billionaire and owner of the Agrofert farm-food giant, about an election victory with more than a half of votes will not probably materialise, yet there is a potential for new parties that need not be small ones.

The potential consists minimally of the about 10 percent of the vote the VV, now supported by less than 1 percent of voters, gained in the 2010 election, and there is a great reservoir of the votes of the disappointed voters of the senior government Civic Democrats (ODS) and TOP 09, Balik writes.

True, there are more alterantives. A big part of these votes may be taken by the current opposition, Social Democrats (CSSD) and Communists (KSCM), or the government ODS and TOP 09 may be resurrected, Balik writes.

The leftist parties can be relatively calm. They may maximally draw some of the votes of the Party of Citizens' Rights of Milos Zeman (SPOZ), but this is not sure, Balik writes.

He says it is possible that in a year the exaggerated hopes pinned on the new president, Zeman, will no longer be that big.

The nervousness is evidently bigger on the right, if it can still be called like this, Balik writes.

He writes that unless something happens with the ODS leadership, a relatively big space for an explicitly rightist entity will emerge.

The latest information about Babis and Jan Fischer's (unaffiliated) wooing is not uninteresting, Balik writes.

He says Fischer, former caretaker prime minister and an unsuccessful candidate in the January direct presidential election, needs money to repay debts for his campaign and Babis with his ANO 2011 movement has it.

Millions of crowns invested in politics are no problem for him as he showed in the unsuccessful Senate election campaign last autumn, especially if he considered the repayment of Fischer's debt as an investment in the future general election campaign, Balik writes.

Fischer has political ambitions and he is free at the moment. He has no clear-cut political leanings, which was clear in the presidential campaign. He first declared closeness to Finance Minister and TOP 09 chairman Karel Schwarzenberg and later explicitly supported Zeman without any great problems, Balik writes.

This is actually precisely what Babis is seeking, Balik adds.

He writes that Fischer's strange electorate in the presidential election forms a special category.

It cannot be simply characterised - it included voters from the left to the right who trusted the image of Fischer, a former caretaker prime minister, an expert and an unaffiliated politician, Balik writes.

All this does not suffice, however. The votes for Fischer in the presidential election are not votes for a party that he would represent in a general election based on the proportional election system, Balik writes.

He says this is what Schwarzenberg and TOP 09 will also experience.

Not one sole face will be running in the general election and besides, the political entity that wants to succeed must formulate real political interests of particular voter groups, Balik writes.

It must for a while at least represent these interests in a more trustworthy way than other parties and movements do, and this seems to be the weakest point of Babis's movement and actually also of Fischer, Balik writes.

The background in regions, if a party is not to be a one-use project, cannot be built from nothing. Money is not enough, it is necessary to arouse enthusiasm, set out a vision and have a charismatic leader, Balik writes.

A few entities representing clear-cut interests for a long time, even though currently outside parliament, such as the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) or Sovereignty, must also be taken into account, Balik writes.

All of them are oscillating close to the 5 percent parliamentary threshold. After the 1992 elections, eight entities entered Czech parliament, three of them formed a pre-election coalition, Balik writes.

The election system has slightly changed since then, yet it can happen that ten parties will enter the Chamber of Deputies, Balik writes.

He says the memories of the current government coalition with the picturesque LIDEM party would be memories of the old good times in such a case.