Tuesday, 21 November 2017

Poll: Support to Pirates rising before elections

ČTK |
17 October 2017

Prague, Oct 16 (CTK) - The support for the Czech Pirates is surging shortly before the October 20-21 general election, having reached 8.5 percent, largely at the expense of ANO, the Social Democrats (CSSD) and the Communists (KSCM), according to the latest Median agency’s poll released on Monday.

Tomio Okamura's populist Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) is also gaining ground and now it may receive 9.5 percent. The SPD and Pirates are popular especially among young people.

Andrej Babis' ANO would win the election with 25 percent, which is 2 percent less than a month ago.

The CSSD would now gain 12.5 percent (1 percent less than a month ago) and the KSCM 10.5 percent of the vote (2 percent less than a month ago).

The opposition Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and the junior government Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) would defend their presence in the Chamber of Deputies. The ODS would suffer the smallest loss, 0.5 percent, with its current 9 percent, while the KDU-CSL would receive 6.5 percent.

With 6 percent, the conservative opposition TOP 09 cannot be certain to be re-elected due to the 5 percent threshold for the Chamber of Deputies, Median said.

Voter turnout would be 64 percent in October, 4 percent more than in September.

"However, only 46.5 percent of Czechs are definitely decided to go to the polling stations," Median said.

Support for parties might be changing last week before the general election, and consequently even the Greens and STAN (Mayors and Independents) have a chance of entering the lower house. Moreover, the Pirates and SPD rely on young voters whose their election behaviour is "the least reliable, however, the pollsters say.

ANO has the highest election potential and it has a chance of crossing 30 percent if all voters who are considering supporting it would do so. On the other hand, if only its hardcore voters supported it, ANO would have under 20 percent.

The election potential shows how much a party might gain if all respondents who are seriously considering voting for it and who do not rule out they will go to elections cast their ballots for it.

The CSSD might get up to 16.5 percent, the ODS some 15 percent, the SPD 14.5 percent and the Pirates 14 percent, while the KSCM's election potential has dropped to 13 percent, Median says.

Nova commercial TV also released the parties' election potential on Monday, based on the poll conducted by STEM and STEM/MARK agencies as of October 15.

According to it, ANO would gain 27.7 percent of the vote, followed by the KSCM with 12.7 percent and the SPD with 12.4 percent.

Unlike the previous STEM poll, the CSSD would only fare fourth with 9.7 percent. The Pirates would gain 7.9 percent and the ODS 7.7 percent. The KDU-CSL and TOP 09 would also enter the Chamber of Deputies gaining 5.2 and 5 percent, respectively.

Support for parties in Median election model (in percent):

Party Oct Sept Aug
ANO 25 27,0 26,5
CSSD 12.5 13.5 14.5
KSCM 10.5 12.5 13.0
SPD 9.5 6.5 6.0
ODS 9 9.5 10.0
Pirates 8.5 6.0 3.5
KDU-CSL 6.5 6.0 6.5
TOP 09 6.0 7.0 9.0
STAN 4.0 4.0 3.5
Greens 3.5 2.5 2.0
Source: Median

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