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Czech Republic’s surprising fall in industry

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Industrial production fell by 6.4% year-on-year in June after more than 3% growth in previous months. Some of this is related to calendar effects and other one-off factors, but the weaker result is also a reminder that Czech industry is not immune to the German industrial slowdown. Weak growth in June was partly due to calendar effects, as there was one less working day in the month compared to June 2018. However, even adjusting for this, industry would have fallen by 3.8% YoY, the weakest rate since July 2016, when production was interrupted by holiday shutdowns. In addition to the calendar impact, the higher base from last year also played a role, although the June figure was still significantly below market expectations of -2.6% YoY.

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