The long-term cumulative effect of a drop in exports on the Czech Republic’s GDP is at most 0.25 % in realistic scenarios. A loss of 650 to 1,600 jobs can be expected based on this reduction in trade. The most affected sectors would include the automobile industry, engineering and electronics. Beyond direct effects there would also be a hole in the EU budget from a net payer. In the current 2014 to 2020 period Great Britain’s absence from the EU would have a negative impact on the net position of the Czech Republic worth roughly CZK 107bn. The Czech Republic’s current net position is CZK 696bn and the new theoretical one without Great Britain is CZK 589bn. From this one can conclude that the additional cumulative negative impact on long-term GDP of the Czech Republic is up to 0.28 %. According to realistic scenarios, overall negative effects on the Czech Republic would total roughly 0.5 % of GDP in the long run.
