Prague, Nov 16 (CTK) – The Czech Social Democrats (senior ruling CSSD) have set out on the path leading to their gradual marginalisation, following the example of the Civic Democrats (ODS) who did so several years ago, Bohumil Pecinka writes in weekly Reflex out on Wednesday in reaction to a cabinet reshuffle.
He says the CSSD leaders have recently started realising that their hovering and absence of a new impulse in the party may result in an election failure next autumn.
Feeling that his position has weakened, CSSD chairman and Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka tried to use an old political trick: he presented himself as the leader of the critical stream in the party and made a loud speech promising personnel changes in his government and the CSSD leadership, Pecinka writes.
Sobotka’s government coalition partners, the ANO movement and the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), were the first to oppose his plan, followed by some government ministers elected for his party and some CSSD regional branches. The resisting CSSD politicians were not against changes, but Sobotka’s steps seemed awkward to them, Pecinka said.
Late last week, Sobotka absolutely lost control of the situation and alternative strategies started to be discussed by his party colleagues in the backstage. Social Democrat politicians were considering what could be done to reverse the fact that the ANO movement of Andrej Babis is getting the upper hand on the CSSD more and more, Pecinka writes.
The situation where Jiri Paroubek replaced Stanislav Gross in the post of CSSD prime minister in 2005 was repeatedly recalled. Within ten months, Paroubek succeeded in markedly increasing the popularity of the party, from 10-percent preferences in opinion polls to 32 percent of the vote in the general election, Pecinka writes.
He says party members speculated who could replace Sobotka, mentioning deputy chairman Lubomir Zaoralek and union leader Josef Stredula.
Finally, the CSSD leadership headed by first deputy chairman Milan Chovanec and the insecure Sobotka decided that only two ministers would be replaced instead of four and that they will pretend that nothing really happened, Pecinka writes.
Last Friday, Sobotka announced that Health Minister Svatopluk Nemecek and Human Rights Minister Jiri Dienstbier (both CSSD) will be replaced.
Pecinka says the CSSD leaders want to be able to smoothly approve the party’s candidates for the general election and to head their lists once again. They hope that either Babis will make a mistake thanks to which their party will succeed, or Babis will not make any mistake and they and a few of their supporters at least will defend their parliamentary seats in late 2017, Pecinka writes.
If the CSSD central executive committee approves this strategy at its meeting on December 10, Babis can be declared next prime minister 11 months before the election. Only one question would remain open in this situation before the election next year: who will be ANO’s coalition partner? Pecinka writes.
He says this would give Babis an enormous space for manoeuvring and it would neutralise all other parties in the election campaign.
However, it is unfair to only blame the CSSD for failing to stop Babis and his oligarchisation tendencies. After protracted fights between various wings in the party, the CSSD is somewhat worn out and depleted, Pecinka writes.
Though the right-wing opposition that had three years for revival, it is in a pitiful condition, he says in connection with the end of the TOP 09/STAN project.
It seems that the alliance of the Mayors and Independents (STAN) and former Christian Democrats and city liberals from TOP 09 that brought together different groups of voters was connected by the personality of former foreign minister Karel Schwarzenberg, who will turn 79 next month and who has been gradually retiring from politics, Pecinka writes.
The ODS leadership headed by Petr Fiala has more or less the same strategy as the Social Democrats. The ODS offers stability to voters and hopes that this will win it a few more percent of the vote in the election, Pecinka says.
However, one can see no determination to win over voters and fight for an election victory. In this situation, Babis deserves to win, Pecinka writes.
