Prague, March 22 (CTK) – Czech Finance Minister Andrej Babis faces unprecedented joint pressure from his government partners and the opposition over a suspicious subsidy to his Capi hnizdo (Stork Nest) firm, but with a bit of skill he might steer the affair for his own benefit, Petr Kolar writes in weekly Tyden.
The recent accusation of a fraudulent drawing of EU subsidies by Capi hnizdo, a part of Babis’s giant Agrofert Holding, has forced Babis into making so far unseen mistakes, Kolar writes.
In a recent documentary film, Babis boasted of Capi hnizdo, a luxurious complex south of Prague, as his best-ever business project.
Later, nevertheless, he asserted that Capi hnizdo is not his, but is owned by a company within the Agrofert Holding. Then he denied it and clumsily tried to explain his words, refused to give detailed information and voiced paranoid suspicions of a general conspiracy against him, Kolar writes.
Apart from having unveiled his weak point (subsidy drawing) for his rivals’ attacks, Babis also showed that he makes mistakes when under pressure, Kolar said.
However, Babis seems to have survived the most critical moments, which he has “overcome by keeping silent.” Whatever the result of the lower house’s upcoming debate on the affair may be, Babis might finally wring political capital out of it, Kolar writes.
Babis, who heads the ANO movement, can expect his coalition partners, the Social Democrats (CSSD) and the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), to subject him to crushing criticism, but in fact they do not want the affair to topple the government, Kolar writes.
Babis may turn his own trouble against his coalition partners and corner them, Kolar continues.
For example, Babis may announce his decision to resign as finance minister. The CSSD and the KDU-CSL would have to quickly consider whether Babis’s resignation would benefit them. They would definitely conclude that they would not, Kolar writes.
If Babis stood outside the cabinet, he could continue controlling the Finance Ministry through a loyal man instated in the ministerial seat, and he could simultaneously play the role of the opposition and attack the government from outside, Kolar writes.
If some of the laws that Babis pushed through still as a minister, failed in practice, he could excuse it by his absence from the cabinet and say it would have worked better if here were a minister, Kolar writes, referring to the disputed law on electronic registration of sales as an example.
The CSSD and KDU-CSL leaders definitely do not want Babis to resign. However, if Babis announced that he would “punish himself” by leaving the cabinet, because he does not cling to the ministerial seat, the partners would have to beg and persuade him in public to keep his post, Kolar writes.
If so, Babis would say he was ready to resign over the Capi hnizdo affair, but the partners did not want to let him go, and that he does not understand what they actually want, Kolar writes.
Babis’s partners can accept the right-wing opposition offer to back a minority government of the CSSD and the KDU-CSL without ANO. However, Babis would easily brand such an alliance a group of discredited parties that crave for power and have allied against him. He would sell this to the public effectively in a way to further boost his ANO’s soaring popularity, Kolar writes.
The application for a 50-million-crown EU subsidy to Capi hnizdo was evidently a fraud on the part of Babis. However, it would be very hard to prove the fraud and make Babis accountable, Kolar writes.
Suspicions will surround Babis forever, but he will probably manage to pacify his voters and keep their support. Paradoxically, his troubles may backfire at his coalition partners, Kolar writes.
