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ANO would win elections, KSČM’s preferences up, ČSSD’s down

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Prague, May 6 (CTK) – The ANO movement would win the Czech general election with 30.5 percent of the vote, if held in April, while the Social Democrats (CSSD) would see their gain decline and the Communists (KSCM) would see it rise as against March, a Kantar TNS election model showed on Sunday.

Out of the current nine parties in the Chamber of Deputies, the right-wing TOP 09 would fail to re-enter the Chamber in April.

The poll, released by public Czech Television (CT), also showed people’s shrinking satisfaction with the political situation in the past months.

In April, ANO would gain one percent more votes than in March.

The second strongest party, the rightist Civic Democrats (ODS), saw its voter preferences rise by 0.5 percent to 14.5 percent in April.

Achieving the same result, the Pirate Party rose by 1 percent.

The KSCM would gain 8 percent of the vote in April, 1.5 percent more than in March, while the CSSD’s 6.5-percent gain would be a 2-percent decline.

Kantar TNS’s analyst Pavel Ranocha said voters continued switching between ANO, the KSCM and the CSSD in recent months, which is why the three parties’ voter preferences tend change constantly.

In the past three months, 20 percent of Czechs changed their mind on which party they would support and whether they would take part in elections, Ranocha said

CSSD chairman Jan Hamacek and deputy chairman Martin Netolicky said the party’s voter preferences may be changing as a result of its ongoing government-forming negotiations with ANO.

“The CSSD must realise who voted for it [in the October 2017 general election],” Netolicky said in a CT debate.

He said he is convinced that the voters who backed the CSSD are no fans of Andrej Babis and his ANO movement, which scored a sweeping victory.

Another three parties that would enter the Chamber of Deputies in April are the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), with 8 percent, the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the Mayors and Independents (STAN), with 5.5 percent each.

Like in March, TOP 09 would end below the 5-percent parliament threshold.

The poll showed that people’s satisfaction with the political situation in the country dropped from 29 percent in February to 19 percent in April.

“To an extent, people may be dissatisfied with the lengthy negotiations on forming a new government, and some may disapprove of the composition of the [government] that seems to be emerging,” Ranocha said.

Supporters of the Pirates and the STAN are the most dissatisfied with the political situation of all, while the dissatisfaction is the lowest among supporters of ANO, though it also tends to rise, Ranocha said.

The poll was conducted on 1200 respondents on April 7-27.

Results of Kantar TNS election models compared with October 2017 election results:

party/movement Model April 2018 Model March 2018 Model February 2018 Elections 2017
ANO 30.5 29.5 33.0 29.6
ODS 14.5 14.0 12.0 11.3
Pirates 14.5 13.5 12.5 10.8
KSCM 8.0 6.5 6.5 7.8
SPD 8.0 7.5 8.5 10.6
CSSD 6.5 8.5 7.5 7.3
STAN 5.5 6.0 4.5 5.2
KDU-CSL 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.8
TOP 09 4.0 4.5 4.5 5.3
Source: Czech Television (Kantar TNS), Czech Statistical Office

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