Prague, March 20 (CTK) – The Czech government Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the opposition Mayors and Independents (STAN) will play an important role in the formation of a new cabinet if they enter the Chamber of Deputies after the October general election, political analysts told CTK on Monday.
The KDU-CSL and STAN agreed to form an election coalition at the weekend, but they still have to discuss the conditions of their cooperation.
A coalition of two parties needs to gain 10 percent of the vote, while the parliamentary barrier for a single party is 5 percent.
If the two parties entered the Chamber of Deputies, which they suppose they will, they would play an important role in the formation of government coalition, political analyst Zdenek Zboril told CTK.
An entity with support of more than 10 percent would play an important role in a situation where the ANO movement of Finance Minister Andrej Babis is expected to gain more than 20 percent of the vote and the senior government Social Democrats (CSSD) would win 15 to 20 percent, Zboril said.
Political analyst Miroslav Mares said the coalition could join the post-election negotiations not only because of its strength, but also because of the centrist position of both parties.
“It would naturally be an entity with a high coalition potential. Its presence in parliament would markedly raise the range of possible coalitions,” Mares said.
He said the KDU-CSL and STAN could participate in both right-centre and left-centre governments.
“If they did not enter the Chamber of Deputies, the Christian Democrat centrist element would disappear from the Chamber of Deputies politics and the potential of creating coalitions would be narrowed,” Mares said.
However, he does not consider the coalition’s exceeding the 10 percent barrier to be a matter of course.
“I think that the risk will definitely be high. The current preferences do not indicate the two entities will cross 10 percent,” Mares said.
But he said this uncertainty may mobilise some non-voters to go to the polls and cast their vote for the KDU-CSL-STAN coalition.
Zboril said the creation of the election coalition is a brave decision that implies a big risk.
“It is not only a matter of counting the votes or preferences of the KDU-CSL and STAN, but people may not fully trust this alliance,” Zboril said.
He said the very fact that the vote taken by the KDU-CSL national conference at the weekend ended in the tigh proportion of 39 to 31 votes does not play into the hands of the coalition.
Zboril said the KDU-CSL’s stance may be influenced by the fact that the party has lost its long-time unity.
“(Chairman Pavel) Belobradek and (Zlin Governor Jiri) Cunek have different opinions. This may signal certain indecisiveness to voters,” he said.
Zboril and Mares said both the KDU-CSL and STAN may lose voters for a long time if their coalition failed to enter the Chamber of Deputies.
This would mainly benefit the rightist opposition TOP 09 and the Civic Democrats (ODS), they added.
