Prague, July 5 (CTK) – The Greek “No” in Sunday’ s referendum on the terms of an international bailout will not improve the negotiating position of the government of Alexis Tsipras, according to Czech analysts whom CTK has addressed.
More than 61 percent of Greeks rejected the bailout terms after 85 percent of the vote was counted tonight.
It will be harder to continue negotiating in order to find a solution to the Greek debt crisis now, for both sides, the analysts agreed.
David Marek, from Deloitte, said the “no” vote was a sad result. The Greek government and citizens are mistaken if they believe that by rejecting the bailout terms they would achieve softer conditions, Marek said, adding that the opposite was true.
Marek said there is only one alternative to the rescue plan – the Argentinian path, or the state declaring itself bankrupt, high inflation and lowering of the living standard.
Lukas Kovanda, from the Roklen financial group, said the position of the European Central Bank (ECB) in providing cash for Greece would worsen due to the “no” vote, which considerably increased the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone.
If the ECB decides that the guarantees that Greek banks provide in exchange for the loans are not sufficient, a banking collapse is likely to come and Greece will have to issue its own currency, even if only as a temporary alternative to the euro, Kovanda said.
ING bank analyst Jakub Seidler said the referendum was in fact pointless and the Greek government would have to return to the negotiating table.
Any other possibility than another rescue plan would harm the Greeks even more, Seidler said.
If Greece leaves the euro zone, it would not avoid the required reforms and these reforms would have to be introduced even more quickly, he said.
Kovanda said the euro will probably weaken due to the Greek “no”, but even if it weakens considerably, this would not last long and the euro will return to its original value.
The Greek economy represents only 1.6 percent of the euro zone, he said.
