The current format of unrestricted military support for Ukraine, including critical ammunition, weaponry, tanks, and armored vehicles, appears to be drawing to a close. To continue receiving military aid from Western allies, Kyiv must adhere to specific conditions set by Ukraine’s supporters. These conditions encompass implementing state reforms and anti-corruption measures.
The conflict in Ukraine has persisted for over a year and a half, with the much-anticipated success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, launched at the beginning of June, still elusive in the eastern region. Additionally, Ukraine faces a limited window of opportunity before the arrival of the dreaded autumn rains, which will render the terrain muddy and impassable for heavy equipment. This could provide an advantage to fortified Russian forces prepared for a defensive strategy.
Ukraine’s predicament is further compounded by the United States, its primary ally, announcing that further military assistance will be contingent on meeting a specific set of prerequisites. The U.S. has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since the onset of the conflict, having already provided substantial aid totaling $43.7 billion.
This announcement came directly from the White House a few days ago, as it transmitted a working list of reforms through its national security advisor to the Donor Coordination Platform, an organization responsible for coordinating military aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and President Volodymyr Zelensky also received the document.
The document outlines a prioritized sequence of reforms that Ukraine must undertake within different timeframes, spanning 3, 6, 12, and 18 months. These reforms primarily address the functioning of supervisory boards for state-owned enterprises, prosecutor’s offices, and the judiciary, as well as anti-corruption measures. Within one year, Ukraine is required to implement changes within the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the police.
The feasibility of Ukraine meeting these specified reforms within the designated timelines remains uncertain. Ukraine has already received a similar list of demands from the European Union, which, as a candidate country, has set a list of seven conditions to be met by the end of October to initiate EU accession talks. These conditions pertain to reducing the influence of oligarchs and eliminating corruption breeding grounds.
However, Ukraine has only fulfilled two of the seven points so far. For instance, Brussels is insisting on the reinstatement of electronic asset declarations for public officials and politicians, which Ukraine had abolished shortly after the conflict began. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olha Stefanishina, has emphasized that it would take several years to fulfill the entire list of requirements.