Prague, April 12 (CTK) – The nascent coalition of the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the Mayors and Independents (STAN) movement may gain up to 22 percent in the Czech October general election, according to a poll from mid-March the parties have commissioned, Mlada fronta Dnes (MfD) writes yesterday.
The poll, the results of which MfD has at its disposal, was conducted on a sample of more than 1500 respondents.
The parties will sign their coalition agreement later today.
The KDU-CSL/STAN coalition will have to gain at least 10 percent of the vote to enter the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Czech parliament, while a party running on its own only needs 5 percent. However, the ambition of the new coalition is higher, MfD writes.
The KDU-CSL did not cross 5 percent in the 2010 general election and did not enter the Chamber of Deputies for the first time in the country’s history, but it returned there in 2013 with Pavel Belobradek at its helm. It is a member of the current coalition government with the Social Democrats (CSSD) and ANO.
Belobradek, who has headed the party since 2010, is quite optimistic when it comes to the prognosis of the election coalition with STAN.
“Let us remember how they wrote us off when we left the Chamber of Deputies and the mockery we faced after my election in 2010 and before the 2013 election. They underestimate us again now,” Belobradek wrote in a document for his party members.
However, analysts from other polling agencies do not share his optimism.
“If we are analysing how many people are really considering voting for the KDU-CSL/STAN, it is 13 to 13.5 percent,” Daniel Prokop, from the Median agency, told MfD.
The coalition has a potential to cross 10 percent, but not 15 percent, and therr is even a high risk it will not manage to cross the 10-percent threshold, sociologist Jan Herzmann said.
MfD writes that the ppt factum poll is the first one in which the analysts did not simply count up the votes for both parties, but they asked respondents directly whether they would vote for the new coalition.
The poll also shows that other 10 percent of voters are seriously considering supporting the KDU-CSL/STAN coalition, while 13 percent would not vote for it, said a participant in the presentation at the KDU-CSL leadership’s meeting on Tuesday.
However, MfD writes that the results of the latest poll must be taken with reservations.
“A potential is such a chimerical figure. I do not think that the ppm datum pollsters have chosen such a poll to meet the client’s expectations. But in no case, this is the answer to the question how many votes the party will gain in elections,” Herzmann said.
“If you ask respondents whether a party or a coalition is acceptable to them, you will get a relatively high potential. But if you ask what parties they would be really taking into consideration if the elections took place in a week, the potential would be lower. It may vary between 13 and 20 percent,” Prokop said.
Nevertheless, the poll result has filled the Christian Democrats with self-confidence, MfD writes.
“Voters will have to answer the question. However, I can see a really high potential,” Culture Minister Daniel Herman (KDU-CSL) said.