Prague, Aug 2 (CTK) – Czech first-time voters are likely to vote for anti-establishment parties, mainly billionaire Andrej Babis’s ANO, the Pirates and Tomio Okamura’s populist Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), in the autumn general election, daily Pravo writes today.
In the October 20-21 election to the Chamber of Deputies, almost 400,000 first-time voters will be able to cast their ballot papers, Pravo writes.
In all, there are 8.4 million voters in the population of 10.5 million, while voter turnout is usually about 60 percent.
Experts told the paper that if the first-time voters, born between 1995 and 1999, really come to the polling stations, they are not likely to vote for mainstream parties.
Sociologist Jan Herzmann believes that even if the first-time voters’ turnout is as low as 40 percent, some 150,000 votes are up for grabs for politicians.
“This is not little. First-time voters strongly tend to vote for parties outside the mainstream such as the Pirates and the Greens,” Herzmann told the paper.
“However, this year the statistics shows that the SPD has strong chances among them,” Herzmann said, adding that ANO would be even more attractive to them.
“Out of the group, perhaps one-fifth seems to vote for Babis,” Herzmann said.
“The crucial role will be played by the strong and unusual personality of the ANO leader, but also ANO’s strong presence in social networks,” he added.
Herzmann said that not first-time voters, but the elderly would tip the balance of the election.
“There will be about 2.3 million of them. They are used to go to the polling stations. Judging by the results of the previous years, some 1.5 million might do so this time, too,” he added.
Sociologist Daniel Prokop agrees that young voters will not decide the election, but they may help a party cross the five-percent threshold to enter the lower house.
“The profile of first-time and second-time voters or those under 30 is quite specific,” Prokop said.
“Unlike other age groups, there are relatively few of them and only some 45 percent go and vote,” he added.
“However, they can give some 2-3 more percent to a small or new party,” Prokop said.
“Thanks to this, the parties may not gain 15 percent, but perhaps the 5-6 percent to get into the Chamber of Deputies,” he added.
Prokop said in the past, the young pushed the Public Affairs, Dawn or Republicans (in the 1990s) to the lower house.
This time, the young will mainly vote for the Pirates, ANO and SPD.
“ANO is largely backed by first-time voters, primarily in small towns rather than in large ones,” he added.
“The SPD attracts the people disappointed with the developments in the regions. Okamura’s anti-migrant rhetoric and strong presence in social networks and the media these people use play into his hands,” Prokop said.
He said this year, not the Greens, but Pirates would be much more popular with the young.
“The Greens tend to be a party of the young aged 27-40 from towns, while Pirates are backed across the Czech Republic, also in small towns,” he added.
